Undergraduate Financing and Obtaining an Advanced Degree
One critical question regarding stratification patterns of higher education is whether the shift away from traditional gift aid programs, and toward widespread borrowing, affected not only outcomes at the undergraduate level, but also subsequent advanced degree attainment. Accounting for selection and omitted variable biases, this study investigates the causal effects of having received 'traditional' gift aid, as well as loan-taking, as an undergraduate on the chance of attaining an advanced degree later on. Data from college graduates between 1986 and 2007 in the National Survey of College Graduates are utilized to identify these effects. The good news is that, despite its policy changes, gift aid has maintained a large positive long-term effect across several decades, thus boosting higher education attainment far beyond the undergraduate degree. The effect size is substantial; having received gift aid as an undergraduate increases the chance of a master’s degree or higher with more than 5%-points in the most conservative estimation models. This effect has remained stable across college graduation cohorts spanning about 20 years, between 1986 and 2007. Conversely, taking out a loan negatively affects the advanced degree attainment; reducing the advanced degree attainment chance with a modest 2.5%-points.
Sole-author study conducted as Postdoctoral Prize Fellow at Nuffield College. The paper is currently under review.
Incentive Inequality and College Persistence
This study examines the implications of these structural labor market inequalities – the opportunity structure – for incentives to remain in college for blacks and whites. The goal of our approach is to advance an explanation for the persistence of racial gaps in college persistence and degree completion that emphasizes racial and gender differences in likely risks and rewards as undergraduates proceed through college. We first develop a method for calculating incentives for race-gender groups separately. This method is based on information drawn from current levels of educational persistence and labor market outcomes, which includes structurally unequal access and unequal returns (partially rooted in discrimination). These calculations represents the race-gender-specific opportunity structure. Subsequently, we use this method to demonstrate that college-enrolled black students have lower relative incentives to persist than white students because they gain less from continuing in college and completing a degree. This black-white “incentive inequality” appears at all observed educational decision nodes but is much higher in the early stages of higher education.
Research conducted in collaboration with Paul Attewell (CUNY, The Graduate Center). The paper is currently under review.
Perceived Social Mobility and Education
Education is considered a key driver of intergenerational social mobility in the United States. However, the past several decades have witnessed a dramatic increase in the costs of college attendance, which puts political pressure on what the roles of government and families in education financing ought to be. In this study, we examine how individuals’ perception of society’s intergenerational mobility affects their willingness to financially support children in college, as well as their opinion on whether the government should take a smaller or bigger role. Perceptions of mobility matter because they reflect individuals’ estimated opportunity structure and thereby an important component of returns to education. Using data from a nationally representative online survey, we show that (1) individuals who believe to live in a highly mobile society, exhibit more aversion toward government spending, and a preference for students relying on family support; (2) these associations are stronger among higher-SES groups; and (3) information treatments about objective social mobility only make optimistic individuals, who already favor college students to rely on family support, even more eager to contribute to tuition costs. These findings suggest that learning about factual levels of mobility reinforces existing beliefs and possibly their consequences for educational investment.
Research conducted in collaboration with Fangqi Wen (Nuffield College, University of Oxford). The paper is currently under review (R&R).
The Effect of Incarceration and Early-Life Mortality
This study identifies the effect of incarceration on premature death. Using longitudinal data a comprehensive treatment model reports a strong positive long-term impact of incarceration on the premature death risk. The current approach improves on earlier studies by rigorously addressing selection into treatment (incarceration) as well as by adjusting for a wide range of covariates of mortality. These include demographics, family background, geographic location, and indicators of health status measured in childhood or early adolescence. This study also expands on earlier research by observing much longer panel data – closer to the mortality curve. Aside from the evident main treatment effect, the results suggest a dosing effect and a timing effect, such that both longer sentences and younger age incarceration are predictive of an even higher premature death risk. Contrary earlier studies reporting racial heterogeneity of mortality risks in prison and non-prison populations, there is no evidence of a stronger, weaker, or reversed effect of incarceration on premature death for blacks, Hispanics, and whites.
Sole-author study conducted as Postdoctoral Prize Fellow at Nuffield College. The paper is currently under review (R&R).
Stratification and Mobility
Vertical and Horizontal Intragenerational Mobility
This study analyzes how career mobility patterns have changed over time and for whom. Structural change is believed to increase the prevalence of merit-based careers and increasing social mobility. We contrast two opposing perspectives on how structural change affect careers; demographic metabolism and the life course perspective. We apply a class scheme that combines vertical skill-based positioning as well as jobs’ nominal classification. Analyses identify career mobility dynamics through sequence analysis in the Swedish Level-of-Living surveys. Findings indicate a striking stability of attaining career mobility types between birth cohorts and substantial within career mobility between classes. However, substantive changes across cohorts are observed within genders. We further observe, in line with other recent research on the topic, no declining effect of class background on career mobility trajectories.
Research conducted in collaboration with Johan Westerman (Stockholm University, SOFI). The paper is currently under review.
General Health, COVID-19 Proximity, and Willingness to Use COVID-19 Mobile Apps
Contact tracing app are considered effective means to monitor COVID-19 infections during off-peak stages of the pandemic. The effectiveness is however dependent on the uptake of such COVID-19 apps. We aim to address the key role of individuals’ general health status in the willingness to participate in a COVID-19 tracing app, while addressing the role of socioeconomic factors and ‘COVID-19 proximity.’ We draw on recently obtained European survey data from the WageIndicator Foundation. Aside from labor market information and sociodemographics, the data contain information on individuals' "COVID-19 proximity," such as having contracted the virus, having observed COVID-19 cases within the family or among colleagues, depressive symptoms, and anxiety. We find that the influence of socioeconomic factors on COVID-19 app usage varies dramatically between countries, although forms of not being employed (i.e. recent job loss) are consistently predictive of lower willingness to use a tracing app (24.6%) as compared to (33.4%) for employees. Among indicators of how close the pandemic comes to one’s nearby social circles (‘COVID-19 proximity’), having a close family member being infected is consistently predictive of tracing app usage across countries. Furthermore, having a poorer general health status is significantly predictive of a much higher likelihood of contact tracing app usage, after accounting for country heterogeneity. We conclude that, in so far public health policy is aimed at using smartphone contact tracing during off-peak periods in the pandemic, campaigns appealing to health benefits for oneself and that of family members may be more successful in increasing COVID-19 tracing app uptake. Campaigns would also benefit from taking seriously the country-specific distribution of privacy concerns.
Research conducted in collaboration with Pablo de Pedraza (European Commission). The paper is currently under review.